Six Scénarios pour la PESD

Generally, in the field of political science more than elsewhere we need to be suspicious of predictions, especially when faced with a large number of variables and their interactions. However, the ESDP is perhaps the most uncertain and complex theme of all. Although the future in this field is impossible for us to accurately assess, and although certainties appear to be difficult to arrive at, we can nevertheless risk attempting a prudent assessment of the future by proposing a small range of fairly typical scenarios, which will probably never occur totally in their « standard » form. If one were to emerge to a greater extent than the others, this would be through borrowing various elements from the others as the scope for interaction is great. Overcoming the paralysing difficulties of the extreme complexity of the politico-strategic and institutional world of the European Union and its many variables, and taking account of the formidable uncertainties concerning the long-term consequences of politico-military and diplomatic decisions taken today within the European field are just some of the obstacles preventing the establishment of credible scenarios. Six scenarios appear to be.