Advanced Simulation of Nuclear Event Scenarios in the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant During the Ukraine Conflict: Implications for Health Security and NATO Response

Description

Introduction: this study addresses the critical issue of a potential radiological or nuclear event at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant amid the ongoing large-scale combat operations (LSCO) in Ukraine. The escalating involvement of Russian forces, especially following their full-scale invasion, underscores a heightened threat and risk. The paper explores not only the possibility of tactical nuclear events but also the orchestrated threats at nuclear power facilities with ambiguity of attribution, highlighting their implications for health security and regional stability across the NATO alliance. Methodology: the unique aspect of this research is the employment of the advanced SIMEDIS simulator methodology to construct and execute a battlefield scenario involving a nuclear event in Ukraine. This approach showcases high-level expertise in managing complex military and medical simulations pertinent to the current conflict. The simulation encompasses a detailed analysis of morbidity and mortality rates, adjusts for weather patterns, emphasizing medical treatment facilities (MTFs) across various stages and geographic locations (point of injury/exposure, Role 1, Role 2, Role 3). It also includes modeling of access to pharmacotherapeutics for radiological and nuclear pathologies, and blood products inside Ukraine and in adjacent countries for response. Results: the research integrates sophisticated modeling software for weather forecasting and guidance on anticipated nuclear fallout scenarios over a fixed timeline accounting for several variables. It presents an exhaustive overview of response strategies, estimating paths of nuclear fallout and casualty projections using open source and projected data sets. Discussion: these insights are crucial for medical planning and regional response preparation for Ukraine, disaster authorities, as well as NATO medical and response planning and preparedness. The study underlines the importance of these simulations in understanding and preparing for potential nuclear events, particularly in the current Ukrainian crisis context. Conclusions: This research contributes significantly to disaster preparedness, providing essential data and projections for Ukraine, NATO members, and neighboring countries, highlighting the crucial role of advanced simulation technologies in addressing nuclear threats in modern warfare.

Période	27 août 2024
Titre de l'événement	Military Health System Research Symposium
Type d'événement	Une conférence
Emplacement	Kissimmee, États-Unis, FlorideAfficher sur la carte
Degré de reconnaissance	International