Uncovering Outliers: Examining Pre-Validation Survey Items in the Organizational Change Capability Scale for Public Organizations

To predict the success rate of change programs in public organizations, our previous research developed a scientifically validated scale based on a sample with 333 entries, each representing an organization's self-assessment. During this validation process, the initial scale of 137 items was condensed to 77 items distributed across 15 components through the use of Principal Component Analysis. The PCA process excluded items that scored either consistently high or low across most entries, as these items typically had lower correlations and, thus, less explanatory power. However, in this research, we argue that these excluded outliers, items that score consistently low or high, offer valuable insights into the maturity of an organization's change capabilities. The objective of this study is to quantitatively identify these outliers and determine which items to retain. The items that consistently score low often reflect the most challenging aspects of organizational change; organizations that excel in these areas demonstrate exceptional change capability and are often top performers. Conversely, the typically high-scoring items represent foundational aspects of change capability; organizations that do not score well on these may struggle with fundamental conditions for effective change. This paper concludes that while PCA is essential for developing a scientifically validated scale, excluding outliers renders the scale blind to the real challenges of change that everyone is grappling with and also underestimates the foundational elements essential for those lagging behind. These findings underscore the importance of including such items in organizational assessments to gain a fuller understanding of an organization's change capabilities.